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Select team defenses carefully for fantasy playoffs
Updated 11/20/2009 11:40 AM ET
Most fantasy leagues use a team defense as a starting position and drafting one in the summer is fraught with risk. So many variables are involved with a defense that it's almost impossible to predict how many sacks, interceptions, turnovers or touchdowns they will have.

But by now there are plenty of current stats to use — and with the fantasy playoffs looming, owning the right defense can make a big difference.

First, let's consider how teams currently rank considering a basic defensive scoring system of one point per sack and two points per turnover. While most leagues award points for safeties and touchdowns, they are far less likely and often an outcome of sacks and turnovers anyway. For this basic view, we'll only consider those core categories of sacks and turnovers.

What defenses gain on average per game

Next, let's see what offenses are giving away. A great defense going against a stingy offense may not score as much as an average defense facing a bad offense. Here is how the offenses currently shake out.

What ofenses allow on average per game

Each matchup during the fantasy playoff weeks can then be assigned the midpoint between what each defense has been gaining against what the opposing offense has been giving up this year. That takes into account the quality of the defense through 10 weeks and how many fantasy points the offenses have been giving up over the course of the season.

Again – this does not include touchdowns, safeties or the myriad of other potential defensive scoring categories but it is a good, solid measurement of how the core of each matchup should shape up.

Team defenses during fantasy playoffs — Weeks 14-16

It's no surprise most of the best scoring fantasy defenses remain that way in those most important weeks — though the Eagles, Cardinals and Falcons improve because of their opponents. The defenses of the Eagles, Packers and Giants also could get an added boost from bad weather. Muddy fields and blustery winds can make for defensive windfalls and the ball is harder to hang onto in freezing temperatures.

For the lower scoring teams, the defenses of the Jets, Bears and Chargers fall even further because their opponents are not nearly as error-prone as the rest. Inept offenses also are a killer for that team's defense because they allow opponents to mostly run the ball, which results in fewer turnovers and obviously no sacks.

Take a look at where your team defenses are playing during the playoffs and see if there are a few more points you might be able to squeeze out of the position by acting now. Taking a second defense makes more sense now than it did earlier in the season.

Posted 11/20/2009 10:39 AM ET
Updated 11/20/2009 11:40 AM ET
Rams quarterback Marc Bulger fumbles the ball as he is sacked by Saints defensive end Will Smith during their Nov. 15 game in St. Louis. The Saints lead the NFL in forcing turnovers this season.
By L.G. Patterson, AP
Rams quarterback Marc Bulger fumbles the ball as he is sacked by Saints defensive end Will Smith during their Nov. 15 game in St. Louis. The Saints lead the NFL in forcing turnovers this season.