| Weekend Preview: Pac-10 starts to sort out its Rose Bowl berth |
| Posted 11/19/2009 10:33 PM ET |
1. I will follow: Half the Rose Bowl picture is complete with Ohio State locking up the Big Ten's slot. The Pacific-10 part of the equation is somewhat more complicated. But the two teams that can win their way to Pasadena without help, No. 11 Oregon and Arizona, square off Saturday night in Tucson. The Ducks bounced back nicely from their lone league loss, while the Wildcats' difficult stretch run got off to a rocky start at California last week. Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli and TB LaMichael James are doing most of the damage on the ground, but TE Ed Dickson and WR Jeff Maehl must be accounted for by CB Trevin Wade and the Arizona secondary. Wildcats top TB Nic Grigsby (shoulder) is expected back in the lineup, which should help QB Nick Foles.
2. Desire: No. 17 Stanford still can make it to the Rose Bowl with a few breaks. California can't, but that won't diminish the Golden Bears' intensity as they visit the Cardinal for this year's "Big Game." Cal's main problem will be slowing the Stanford offense, which put up 106 points combined on Oregon and Southern California in consecutive outings. RB Toby Gerhart is the primary threat with QB Andrew Luck providing balance through the air. WR Chris Owusu is his fastest target. Cal TB Shane Vereen will continue to capably fill the shoes of Jahvid Best (concussion), but QB Kevin Riley must be sharp.
WEEKEND FORECAST: Game predictions for all the Top 25 teams3. With or without you: Kansas State is in an all-or-nothing situation heading into Saturday's Big 12 North showdown at No. 25 Nebraska. The winner will play for the conference title, but if the Wildcats lose, their season will end with no bowl bid possible. To avoid that scenario, K-State must find a way to keep Huskers DTs Ndamukong Suh and Jared Crick from controlling the line of scrimmage. Wildcats WR Brandon Banks and TB Daniel Thomas can make things happen in space if QB Grant Gregory has time to find them. The Nebraska offense tends to bog down when TB Roy Helu Jr. doesn't get running room.
4. Mysterious ways: No. 18 Brigham Young has had a strange season ranging from unstoppable to inept. A second-place finish in the rugged Mountain West Conference is nevertheless possible for the Cougars, but their last two games won't be easy. This week's visitor to Provo is Air Force, hoping to crack the MWC's top three. The Falcons' four losses have been by seven points or fewer, one in overtime at Utah, and their formula of ball control with QB Tim Jefferson and Asher Clark and stout pass defense with CBs Anthony Wright and Reggie Rembert could serve them well against QB Max Hall and the Cougars' high-octane approach. BYU will need good reads from FS Scott Johnson and production from oft-injured TB Harvey Unga.
5. New Year's Day: With the Southeastern Conference race long since decided, No. 10 LSU visits longtime rival Mississippi with both looking to improve their spot in the January bowl pecking order. The Tigers should have more offensive punch this week with QB Jordan Jefferson (ankle) set to return. WRs Brandon LaFell and Terrance Toliver should benefit. All-purpose threat Dexter McCluster has taken over the Ole Miss offense in recent weeks, but he'll need help from QB Jevan Snead to keep the speed-laden LSU defense off balance.
6. Heartland: No. 14 Wisconsin might still be in the mix for an at-large BCS bid. But the Badgers have a difficult Big Ten finale Saturday at Northwestern, which can make a solid season even better with an eighth win. Badgers TB John Clay is having an all-conference season with 1,124 yards. He should help QB Scott Tolzien avoid Northwestern DE Corey Wootton's pass rush. Wildcats QB Mike Kafka (hamstring) could be near full speed to give him back his added dimension, a possible concern for Wisconsin LB Jaevery McFadden.
7. I still haven't found what I'm looking for:Boston College hosts No. 25 North Carolina in the best matchup of the Atlantic Coast Conference weekend, though the league championship is all but out of reach for both. The Tar Heels' Coastal Division has already been clinched by Georgia Tech, and Clemson will lock BC out of the Atlantic by handling 3-7 Virginia. But both teams could still reach 10 wins, and the Eagles are aiming for a perfect home record. BC QB Dave Shinskie and TB Montel Harris must solve the ACC's top-rated defense, featuring DE Robert Quinn and CB Kendric Burney. UNC TB Ryan Houston and BC LB Luke Kuechly could meet often.
The secondary
Spotlight: Top-ranked Montana is the last undefeated team in the Football Championship Subdivision and has already wrapped up the Big Sky Conference title. But the Grizzlies can expect spirited resistance in the regular-season finale at archrival Montana State. The 23rd-ranked Bobcats likely need the upset to be considered for an at-large playoff berth. Montana has won the last three meetings and brings a balanced attack with QB Justin Roper and RB Chase Reynolds into Bozeman. But the Bobcats lead the Big Sky in total defense, with DE Dane Fletcher recording a league-best 16.5 tackles for loss.
Wouldn't Wannabe U.: Memphis is in the final throes of a 2-8 season, and coach Tommy West is a lame duck. The Tigers must now venture to No. 22 Houston, where the Cougars are sure to be angry after last week's loss to Central Florida has them playing catchup in Conference USA West.
Number of the week: 24.48. QB Colt McCoy and WR Jordan Shipley are among the many reasons second-ranked Texas is well positioned to earn a spot in the BCS title game. But the other side of the ball deserves much credit as well. Perhaps the most impressive figure illustrating the dominance of LB Emmanuel Acho and Co. is the nation's best 24.48% third-down conversion rate they allow, getting off the field over three-quarters of the time when their opponents face third down. The Longhorns will make their Big 12 South championship official with a win Saturday night against Kansas.
Extra point: You didn't think we'd let this week's preview go by without a mention of Floyd of Rosedale, did you? The immortal bronze pig that is the trophy in the Iowa-Minnesota series has made its home in Iowa City seven of the last eight years. The Hawkeyes, who host this round, will try to make it eight of nine and three in a row as they look to stay in the BCS at-large pool.
Weekend TV games
Times p.m. Eastern. Lines by USA TODAY's Danny Sheridan. Jeff Sagarin's power ratings show the relative strength of teams; 3.06 points added to home team's rating to calculate difference.
| Posted 11/19/2009 10:33 PM ET | |
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