Documentary

Topical, certainly. But Michael Moore's Capitalism: A Love Story earned mostly grudging respect from critics and never sparked the sort of passionate public debate inspired by his George W. Bush-bashing Fahrenheit 9/11in 2004 – which didn't even compete for best doc that year. Still, it is seen as the most likely documentary to be in the running, and bullhorn-toting Moore remains the genre's star attraction.

Animated feature

How fitting if Up, Pixar's 10th film, floats into one of the 10 berths. The story of a crotchety coot who rides off in a balloon-elevated house to South America drew tears with its poignant montage that charted the stages of a relationship and laughs from those silly talking dogs. Critics went nuts, box office went boom, and there's no longer an excuse not to allow Pixar into the best-picture club.

Tech-loaded blockbuster

Self-proclaimed king of the world James Cameron hasn't directed a feature film since he ruled the Oscars with 11 wins for 1997's best picture, Titanic. But if the potentially mind-blowing 3-D effects of Avatar live up to the hype and the sci-fi tale of a traveler who infiltrates an alien world touches the heart, he could try for the universe. Opens Dec. 18.

Foreign-language film

It has been nearly a decade since 2000's Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon cracked the category. After impressing the film-festival circuit, the next could be Michael Haneke's The White Ribbon, Germany's entry in the foreign-language race. The pre-World War I drama about an abused children's choir could have the goods to cross over. Opens Dec. 30.

Action thriller

Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino's World War II revenge fantasy, scored a direct hit on the late-summer box office and produced at least one breakout star: Austrian actor Christoph Waltz as a suavely sinister German colonel. Tarantino was an Oscar darling when Pulp Fiction blew the academy away in 1994, and he could finally stage his comeback as a best-picture-worthy auteur.

Adult comedy

A contingent believes the top-grossing comedy of the year, The Hangover, could find a spot. But sex farces have never been an academy fave – not even 1959's Some Like It Hot, with six other nominations, made the best-picture cut. Instead, a classier entry may pull it off: Nancy Meyers' post-divorce-capade, It's Complicated, with Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin. Early word is good for this Dec. 25 release.

		Moore: His Capitalism: A Love Story could be a best-documentary shoo-in. Overture Films