|Stocks advance to add to week's large gains|
|Posted 10/31/2008 5:48 PM ET|
The Dow Jones industrials rose 144 points on the day but ended the month down 14.1 percent, while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 16.9 percent during October as the stock market fell victim to investors' anguish over frozen credit markets and what looked like an inevitable recession.
But the month did end on a far more upbeat note than anyone might have expected at the height of investors' despair just weeks ago. The Dow was up 11.3 percent for the week, its best weekly performance in 34 years, while the S&P 500 index rose 10.5 percent -- a sign of stability that followed a growing sense that the series of government moves to unlock the credit markets would indeed help the economy move toward recovery.
Investors who have become used to bad economic news dealt calmly Friday with data showing a drop in consumer spending. Another reason for the advance: Mutual funds that dumped stocks furiously as the end of their fiscal year approached were finished with their selling.
While the market capped a terrible month with a strong week, it likely will need to put the presidential election next week behind it and focus on the October employment report due next Friday before committing to a direction. The jobs report should provide some insight into how long and how severe the economic downturn could be.
The market is "settling into a little bit of a holding pattern" ahead of the election and jobs report, said Craig Peckham, market strategist at Jefferies & Co. "The fear level has clearly subsided, but there's still a pervasive tone of unease."
The Dow rose 144.32, or 1.57 percent, to 9,325.01 after rising as much as 274 and falling 62.
Broader stock indicators also advanced. The S&P 500 index rose 14.66, or 1.54 percent, to 968.75, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 22.43, or 1.32 percent, to 1,720.95.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 23.34, or 4.54 percent, to 537.52.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 5 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a moderate 1.57 billion shares. Lighter volume can raise questions about the conviction behind the market's moves.
October marked the Dow's worst percentage loss since 1987. But the 11.3 percent gain for the week -- mostly from an 889-point surge on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's second interest rate cut of the month on Wednesday -- gave the Dow its best weekly performance since Oct. 11, 1974.
Still, the market's stats during the month of October were unnerving:
_ Paper losses in U.S. stocks came to $2.5 trillion for the month, according to the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index, which represents nearly all stocks traded in America. The 17.7 percent decline was the worst since the 23 percent drop in October 1987.
_ During the week of Oct. 10, the Dow plunged 1,874.19 points, or 18.2 percent to finish at 8,451.19, its lowest close since April 2003. The week's decline accounted for half of the blue chips' losses for the entire year.
_ The Dow fell for eight straight sessions -- the longest losing streak since the eight days of declines following the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, when the blue chips lost 1,038.12, or 10.8 percent. It lost a staggering 2,400 points, or 22.1 percent.
_ The market's volatility was so intense that there were just three days during the month that the Dow didn't rise or fall in triple digits. The Dow set new records for one-day point gains, 936.42 and 889.35, and for one-day point losses, 777.68 and 733.08.
The stock market began the month anguishing over the House of Representative's rejection of the government's plan to bail out the nation's financial system -- a program made necessary by the paralysis of the credit markets following the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. But the ultimate passage of the plan gave the market no lasting joy -- it was overshadowed by the market's intense fears of a prolonged and deep recession, and the volatility and heavy selling that marked the month continued.
It was only after the government decided to invest money into the nation's big banks that the market began to calm -- there were signs that lending was starting to ease. There were still waves of selling, some of them due to hedge and mutual funds unloading their shares at the end of their fiscal year, but by this week, signs were emerging that Wall Street was righting itself.
But the week's relative stability offered investors some calm. And their reaction to economic data also showed a decrease in some of their anxiety. The Commerce Department said personal spending fell by 0.3 percent last month, as expected, the biggest decline since June 2004. Combined with flat readings in both July and August, it led to the worst quarterly performance in 28 years.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of manufacturing activity, fell to a reading of 37.8 -- much worse than the 48.0 figure that analysts anticipated. But the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment data came in at 57.6, slightly better than the 57.5 expected.
Alongside the unsurprisingly downbeat readings, investors also considered whether government help for struggling homeowners might be able to help stabilize the housing market and alleviate a worry for many homeowners, even those not behind on mortgage payments.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking by satellite to a Berkeley, Calif., conference said the housing finance system will require better safeguards to allow it to function during times of strain in the market. He outlined a number of possible ways to structure housing finance in the future, though he did not indicate his preferences.
The Bush administration is mulling a proposal that would help around 3 million homeowners avoid foreclosure by having the government guarantee billions of dollars worth of distressed mortgages. It could include changes to loans that would lower interest rates for a five-year period.
Treasury demand let up slightly as stocks rose. The three-month Treasury bill, considered one of the safest assets around, yielded 0.45 percent, higher than 0.37 percent late Thursday. A higher yield translates to decreased demand. The 10-year Treasury note's yield was 3.97 percent, unchanged from late Thursday.
The dollar was mixed against other major currencies. Gold prices declined.
Crude oil fell $1.35 to $64.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 5.01 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 2.01 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 2.44 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 2.33 percent.
|Posted 10/31/2008 5:48 PM ET|